April wasn’t the best month for the Argo Blockchain (LSE:ARB) share price. It fell around 25%, for various reasons discussed below. For some, this fall makes it look like a good discount buy as we start May. Looking ahead, there are points that are worthy of noting that could cause the share price to either continue to fall, or bounce back strongly. Let’s take a look.
What happened in April?
April saw a correction in the Argo Blockchain share price. Even though 25% sounds like a large fall, it needs to be taken in the context of the longer-term rally that has been seen. Over the past year, it’s up over 3,000%. So really, I think of the fall as more of a correction. This could be a mix of investors taking profits or some speculative short selling due to the sharp rise and potential overbought price.
Added to this is the lack of benefit gained in April from the value of Bitcoin. Argo Blockchain mines for Bitcoin predominantly, and so the value of Bitcoin has a high correlation to company performance. Even the CEO gets paid his salary in Bitcoin!
Bitcoin trades at around $54k at the moment, down from highs of around $65k earlier in April. So this depreciation also would act as a downward pressure on the firm’s share price.
The Argo Blockchain share price outlook for May
Although full-year results came out at the end of April, I’m going to put that in my May section as the market will need time to properly digest it.
There hasn’t been much of a reaction so far since the release of the results. They showed revenue growth of 120% to £19m. When I add in a reduction in costs of £1.1m, it all comes to a net profit of £1.7m. This is a large boost from the net loss posted in 2019, but I wasn’t really that surprised.
After all, Argo Blockchain has been delivering regular updates on monthly and quarterly performance. I was aware of the record-breaking months, particularly during 2021 so far. There hasn’t been anything I’ve spotted in the annual report that is game-changing information. So from that angle, I don’t see the report as a key mover for the share price in early May.
One story I am keeping my eye on for the share price this month is the planned US capital gains tax increase. This was announced by President Biden and could mean a significant increase in tax due when selling assets for a gain. Cryptocurrency would be included in this, with the top tier paying almost 40% in tax on gains.
Given the amount of unrealised gains that people are sitting on via Bitcoin and other assets, I’m watching for more information in May as this could see investors sell out of coins ahead of any implementation.
A lack of direction?
Unfortunately, I don’t have a clear conviction about the Argo Blockchain share price as we stand. The April sell-off was justified, in my opinion, given the large rally. But the full-year results haven’t really moved the price. I’d prefer to sit on the sideline until there is a clear catalyst to spark a movement.
The post What’s in store for the Argo Blockchain share price in May? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.
jonathansmith1 has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
Motley Fool UK 2021